By applying Supply-demand Balance Analysis, the water resource supply and demand of the whole river basin and each county or district were calculated and used to evaluate the vulnerability of the water resources system of the basin. The IPAT equation was used to set a future water resource demand scenario to establish the scenario by setting variables such as future population growth rate, economic growth rate, and unit GDP water consumption. By taking 2005 as the base year and using assorted forecasting data of population size and economic scale, the future water demand scenarios of various counties and cities from 2010 to 2050 were predicted. By applying the basic structure of the HBV conceptual hydrological model of the Swedish Hydrometeorological Institute, a model of the variation tendency of the basin under climate change was designed. The glacial melting scenario was used as the model input to construct the runoff scenario under climate change. According to the national regulations of the water resources allocation of the basin, a water distribution plan was set up to calculate the water supply comprehensively. Considering of the supply and demand situation, the water resource system vulnerability was evaluated by the water shortage rate. By calculating the (grain production) land pressure index of the major counties and cities in the basin, the balance of supply and demand of land resources under the climate change, glacial melt and population growth scenarios was analyzed, and the vulnerability of the agricultural system was evaluated. The Miami formula and HANPP model were used to calculate the human appropriation of net primary biomass and primary biomass in the major counties and cities for the future, and the vulnerability of ecosystems from the perspective of supply and demand balance was assessed.
Based on the international trade data from UN comtrade crude oil resources (2709), after sorting, extracting, compiling and spatializing, flow map was made on arcgis 10.2 software platform. From the perspective of central Asia's oil trade relations, priority should be given to ensuring the oil exports of European countries as the main direction of central Asia's oil exports. Before 2006, the exports to Europe accounted for more than 90% of central Asia's exports.From the perspective of export volume and trade relations, since the disintegration of the Soviet union, central Asia has been seeking to diversify its exports and establish broader trade relations, with the number of exporting countries increasing from 3 in 1993 to 18 in 2016.Before 1995, central Asia exported only a small amount of oil, less than 1 million tons. From 1996 to 2013, oil exports increased rapidly and reached a peak.